Economic analysts have forecasted a marginal drop in Nigeria’s inflation rate to 15.84 percent in October, citing the impact of recent monetary tightening and moderate improvements in food supply.
The projection marks a potential cooling in headline inflation, which has hovered above 16 percent in recent months due to persistent food and energy costs. Analysts say the slowdown, if confirmed by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), would signal the early effects of the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) sustained interest rate hikes.
“The apex bank’s aggressive tightening stance is beginning to show results,” said Oluwaseun Ajayi, an economist at Capital Analytics. “While price pressures remain elevated, the pace of increase appears to be easing, particularly in urban markets.”
The decline is also attributed to improved food distribution following the harvest season and reduced speculative trading in the foreign exchange market. However, core inflation which excludes food and energy remains sticky, reflecting underlying structural issues such as logistics costs and import dependency.
Despite the projected relief, consumers are still grappling with high living costs, and analysts caution that inflation could rebound if fiscal spending increases ahead of the festive season.
“The next few months will test the sustainability of this decline,” Ajayi added. “We need to see consistent supply-side reforms to stabilize prices long-term.”
The NBS is expected to release the official inflation figure for October in mid-November, providing a clearer picture of the economy’s direction as Nigeria closes the final quarter of 2025.
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