Nigeria’s Debt Service-to-Revenue Ratio Soars to 162% in H1 2024, Raising Concerns Over Debt Sustainability
Nigeria’s debt-service-to-revenue ratio has surged to 162% in the first half of 2024, up from 128% in the same period last year, signaling a growing strain on the country’s finances. This increase comes despite the implementation of foreign exchange and fuel subsidy reforms by President Bola Tinubu’s administration aimed at boosting government revenue, controlling fiscal deficits, and reducing reliance on borrowing.
A rising debt-service ratio means that an increasing portion of Nigeria’s government revenue is being directed toward servicing debt obligations rather than funding crucial capital expenditures, such as infrastructure projects. This shift poses risks to long-term economic growth and fiscal stability.
Debt Service Costs Soar Amid Rising Borrowing
Debt servicing costs in the first six months of 2024 escalated by 69%, reaching N6 trillion, and now account for about 50% of the federal government’s total expenditure. This sharp increase reflects the mounting pressure on Nigeria’s finances, exacerbated by the weakening value of the naira.
Nigeria’s total public debt stock rose by N12.6 trillion between March and June 2024, driven by the depreciation of the naira, which has weakened despite efforts by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to stabilize the currency. According to the most recent data from the Debt Management Office (DMO), Nigeria’s total public debt stock now stands at N134.3 trillion, a significant jump from previous levels.
Analysts at FBNQuest Capital attributed the rise in the debt stock to two main factors: the depreciation of the naira, which added about N5.9 trillion to the debt, and fresh borrowings from the domestic market. The naira depreciated from NGN1,330.3/USD in Q1 2024 to NGN1,470.2/USD in Q2 2024, increasing the cost of servicing dollar-denominated debt in local currency terms.
Debt-to-GDP Ratio Exceeds DMO’s Ceiling
Nigeria’s public debt as a percentage of GDP has also risen, reaching 58% in Q2 2024, up from 53% in Q1. This exceeds the Debt Management Office’s (DMO) target ceiling of 40%, signaling that Nigeria’s debt burden is rising faster than the economy can sustain. Although the country’s debt-to-GDP ratio remains below the 60% threshold set by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for emerging markets, the combination of weak revenue generation and foreign exchange volatility poses significant risks to fiscal health.
Esili Eigbe, director at consulting firm Escap Management Ltd, warned that Nigeria’s increasing debt levels could lead the country to a debt crisis if left unaddressed. “Despite claims that Nigeria’s debt-to-GDP ratio is still below global standards, the real concern should be the debt-to-revenue ratio, which places Nigeria among the countries least able to repay their debt,” Eigbe said.
He also projected that Nigeria’s debt stock could reach N185 trillion by 2026, driven by continued borrowing and currency depreciation.
Rising Debt Levels Could Trigger Debt Crisis
Experts are increasingly concerned that Nigeria’s growing debt burden could lead to a full-blown debt crisis, with severe consequences for the country’s economy. A debt crisis would likely result in a naira devaluation, a credit rating downgrade, higher borrowing costs, persistent inflation, and diminished investor confidence. These factors could further exacerbate Nigeria’s ongoing cost-of-living crisis, potentially triggering social unrest.
Government’s Efforts to Boost Revenue
In response to the rising debt burden, the Nigerian government is pushing for significant changes to the country’s tax system to increase revenue. Taiwo Oyedele, head of the government’s tax reform committee, recently stated that the reforms are aimed at doubling the country’s revenue as a percentage of GDP within the next two to three years. “If we are moving from 9% to 18%, that means we are doubling it,” Oyedele explained in a recent interview.
FBNQuest Capital analysts have similarly noted that Nigeria’s fiscal outlook may improve in the medium term due to ongoing efforts to increase non-oil revenue, as well as potential exchange rate gains from a more flexible foreign exchange regime. However, they also warned that the country’s debt burden is likely to continue rising due to higher government spending and the increased cost of servicing debt as the naira weakens further.
Outlook: Debt Sustainability Under Pressure
Nigeria’s rising debt service costs and expanding debt stock underscore the urgent need for fiscal reforms and a sustainable revenue generation strategy. While the government’s proposed tax reforms may offer some hope of improving revenue collection in the medium term, the country faces significant risks if its debt trajectory continues unchecked.
As Nigeria works to balance fiscal discipline with necessary public investment, the outlook remains precarious. Rising debt levels and the ongoing volatility in the foreign exchange market are likely to remain key factors influencing the government’s ability to manage its finances and avoid a potential debt crisis.Nigeria’s debt-service-to-revenue ratio has surged to 162% in the first half of 2024, up from 128% in the same period last year, signaling a growing strain on the country’s finances. This increase comes despite the implementation of foreign exchange and fuel subsidy reforms by President Bola Tinubu’s administration aimed at boosting government revenue, controlling fiscal deficits, and reducing reliance on borrowing.
A rising debt-service ratio means that an increasing portion of Nigeria’s government revenue is being directed toward servicing debt obligations rather than funding crucial capital expenditures, such as infrastructure projects. This shift poses risks to long-term economic growth and fiscal stability.
Debt Service Costs Soar Amid Rising Borrowing
Debt servicing costs in the first six months of 2024 escalated by 69%, reaching N6 trillion, and now account for about 50% of the federal government’s total expenditure. This sharp increase reflects the mounting pressure on Nigeria’s finances, exacerbated by the weakening value of the naira.
Nigeria’s total public debt stock rose by N12.6 trillion between March and June 2024, driven by the depreciation of the naira, which has weakened despite efforts by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to stabilize the currency. According to the most recent data from the Debt Management Office (DMO), Nigeria’s total public debt stock now stands at N134.3 trillion, a significant jump from previous levels.
Analysts at FBNQuest Capital attributed the rise in the debt stock to two main factors: the depreciation of the naira, which added about N5.9 trillion to the debt, and fresh borrowings from the domestic market. The naira depreciated from NGN1,330.3/USD in Q1 2024 to NGN1,470.2/USD in Q2 2024, increasing the cost of servicing dollar-denominated debt in local currency terms.
Debt-to-GDP Ratio Exceeds DMO’s Ceiling
Nigeria’s public debt as a percentage of GDP has also risen, reaching 58% in Q2 2024, up from 53% in Q1. This exceeds the Debt Management Office’s (DMO) target ceiling of 40%, signaling that Nigeria’s debt burden is rising faster than the economy can sustain. Although the country’s debt-to-GDP ratio remains below the 60% threshold set by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for emerging markets, the combination of weak revenue generation and foreign exchange volatility poses significant risks to fiscal health.
Esili Eigbe, director at consulting firm Escap Management Ltd, warned that Nigeria’s increasing debt levels could lead the country to a debt crisis if left unaddressed. “Despite claims that Nigeria’s debt-to-GDP ratio is still below global standards, the real concern should be the debt-to-revenue ratio, which places Nigeria among the countries least able to repay their debt,” Eigbe said.
He also projected that Nigeria’s debt stock could reach N185 trillion by 2026, driven by continued borrowing and currency depreciation.
Rising Debt Levels Could Trigger Debt Crisis
Experts are increasingly concerned that Nigeria’s growing debt burden could lead to a full-blown debt crisis, with severe consequences for the country’s economy. A debt crisis would likely result in a naira devaluation, a credit rating downgrade, higher borrowing costs, persistent inflation, and diminished investor confidence. These factors could further exacerbate Nigeria’s ongoing cost-of-living crisis, potentially triggering social unrest.
Government’s Efforts to Boost Revenue
In response to the rising debt burden, the Nigerian government is pushing for significant changes to the country’s tax system to increase revenue. Taiwo Oyedele, head of the government’s tax reform committee, recently stated that the reforms are aimed at doubling the country’s revenue as a percentage of GDP within the next two to three years. “If we are moving from 9% to 18%, that means we are doubling it,” Oyedele explained in a recent interview.
FBNQuest Capital analysts have similarly noted that Nigeria’s fiscal outlook may improve in the medium term due to ongoing efforts to increase non-oil revenue, as well as potential exchange rate gains from a more flexible foreign exchange regime. However, they also warned that the country’s debt burden is likely to continue rising due to higher government spending and the increased cost of servicing debt as the naira weakens further.
Outlook: Debt Sustainability Under Pressure
Nigeria’s rising debt service costs and expanding debt stock underscore the urgent need for fiscal reforms and a sustainable revenue generation strategy. While the government’s proposed tax reforms may offer some hope of improving revenue collection in the medium term, the country faces significant risks if its debt trajectory continues unchecked.
As Nigeria works to balance fiscal discipline with necessary public investment, the outlook remains precarious. Rising debt levels and the ongoing volatility in the foreign exchange market are likely to remain key factors influencing the government’s ability to manage its finances and avoid a potential debt crisis.